So here’s my gloomy scenario for the presidential election: Barack Obama loses by a slim margin. Immediately, the whispers begin: “The only reason Obama lost was because he was black.” “The only reason Obama lost was because McCain used racial innuendo, called Obama a Muslim.” The country becomes more divided; the racial divide widens more than anything else. Everything gets really ugly.
Since I am (ethnically speaking) half New England Yankee, and half Pennsylvania Dutch, I am by nature a very gloomy person (this is why I’m a Universalist, I need to know that things will get better after I die). I had convinced myself that a slim loss by Obama would be what would happen. A win by Obama would be just as bad, due to the assassination attempts (being gloomy, I know there would be assassination attempts). Now I am trying to convince myself that McCain will win by a wide margin, since it is the least gloomy scenario for me.
Man, I hate presidential election season. It’s almost as bad as watching the Red Sox lose postseason games. The only thing keeping me from total gloom is that the Yankees aren’t in the World Series.
The polls are very clear right now. If Obama loses, the election was stolen.
But the next weeks will be interesting.
There is a definite similarity between the presidential race and sports. I had someone invite me to come watch the debate with a group of people recently.
This person said: “It’s fun. You sit and cheer on your candidate, yell at the other one, eat popcorn, throw stuff at the screen.”
Like a baseball game? I said.
I didn’t go.
It looks likely Illinois Gov Blagojevich and probably his wife will be indicted in the next few weeks on the basis of evidence from Tony Rezko. Obama’s name may well be mentioned in the indictment. Blagojevich will alsmost certainly drag Obama into it.
So an Obama administration will start with a corruption trial of close associates.
Add in Biden’s predicted test of Obama by America’s foes… a test for Which Biden feels Obama will need help:
Obama’s “gonna need your help to use your influence within the community to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right.”
…and I think America’s going to be in for a real rocky time. I’m guessing a far more tough guy response from Obama than many Obama supporters –at least among UU’s– have contemplated.
He’s going to start cripples and feel a real need to look tough. He’ll do it, and someone in the middle east probably will pay a very stiff price.
Check out http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for some alternate scenarios, backed by strong statistics and a statistician with a history of accuracy.
I understand your tendency toward gloomy scenarios, though. The Yankee half of my heritage is always trying to pull me there, too. But it just ain’t the way the world always works!
Yes, I know it’s become about as cliched as could possibly be this election season, but nonetheless that’s what I have. Obama will win big. (My personal ancedotal proof – my wife’s parents – died in the wool Republicans, and until last Sunday undecided/leaning to McCrankypants, are voting Obama based on Powell’s endorsement, the disgrace that is Palin, and, for dad-in-law, Warren Buffet’s nod.)
Despite the best shot from the oncoming Republican jihad, a yearing for a new model of goverance – based on policy rather than politics – will prevail. This is where my *hope* lies.
From where we’ve been, things can only get better. I’m buying (buying hope rather than gloom, as well as buying equities) as others are selling, and in the long run, as well as us all being dead – enter stage right the universalists – all will be fine.
But what I really wanted to know was how many of you turned off the TV during the sixth inning of the sixth game of the American League playoffs… and whether you were depressed by the Red Sox (again)… and whether you care more about baseball or politics.
(My answers:– I did not watch any of the playoffs [or the debates for that matter] because work has been just too crazy this fall — yes I was depressed by the Red Sox yet again — I definitely care more about baseball, which is ultimately life-affirming, even if the Red Sox do lose.)